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The Science of Conjecture
520 pages, 2015
science & nature
1064 books
history
999 booksIn 1654, the mathematician Pascal and his friend Fermat discovered a branch of mathematics that had tremendous implications for reasoning about the truth. Before this time, how did people make reliable predictions? What methods in law, science, commerce, philosophy, and logic helped them to get at the truth in cases where certainty was not attainable?
In this text, James Franklin examines how judges, witch inquisitors, and juries evaluated evidence; scientists weighed reasons for and against scientific theories; merchants counted shipwrecks to determine insurance rates, and everyone else made rough numerical estimates or avoided numbers entirely. Every so often, this type of reasoning involved a level of risk in chance events that could be expressed as a percentage likelihood that something would occur.
In 'The Science of Conjecture', James Franklin takes us on a journey through the history of probability. He explores how our ancestors used to make decisions based on guesswork and superstition, and how this evolved into the scientific methods we use today. It's a fascinating look into the past that helps us appreciate the progress we've made.
Franklin digs into the role of mathematics in decision making. He shows how mathematical theories and principles can help us make better, more informed decisions. If you've ever wondered why math matters, this book will give you a clear answer.
One key takeaway from the book is the importance of evidence in making conjectures. Franklin emphasizes that without solid evidence, any conjecture is just a guess. He encourages readers to always seek out and consider evidence before making decisions.
Franklin explores the evolution of legal and scientific proof. He takes a look at how these concepts have changed over time, and how they've shaped our understanding of truth and certainty. It's a fascinating research into the foundations of our legal and scientific systems.
In 'The Science of Conjecture', Franklin shows how conjecture has shaped society. From influencing legal decisions to driving scientific discoveries, conjecture plays a crucial role in our world. By understanding this, we can see the power of educated guessing and its potential to drive future innovations.
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