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Models. Behaving. Badly.

240 pages, 2012

money & investing

money & investing

165 books
economics & politics

economics & politics

987 books
science & nature

science & nature

1064 books
philosophy

philosophy

711 books
Takeaways
Description
Emanuel Derman worked as a quantitative analyst at Goldman Sachs, one of the financial engineers whose computer models supplanted Wall Street traders intuition. The 2008 economic crisis was triggered by the dependence of traders on quantitative analysis. Using mathematical language to approximate the manner of physics, these models deal with people, which hides their underlying contrast with the goals and probable outcomes in psychological and financial worlds. When we construct a human-scale replica, we're attempting to push Cinderellas ugly stepsisters foot into Cinderellas lovely glass slipper.
Understanding the Difference Between Models and Theories

In 'Models. Behaving. Badly.', Emanuel Derman explores the crucial difference between models and theories. He explains that while models are simplified representations of reality, theories are fundamental truths. This distinction is key to understanding the book's main message.

The Limitations of Financial Models

Derman, with his background in physics and finance, takes a critical look at the use of mathematical models in finance. He argues that these models, while useful, can lead to disastrous results if used without understanding their limitations and the assumptions they are based on.

The Importance of Human Judgment

One of the key takeaways from the book is the importance of human judgment in decision-making. Derman suggests that no model can fully capture the complexity of the real world, and therefore, human intuition and experience should not be overlooked.

The Dangers of Over-Reliance on Models

Derman warns about the dangers of over-reliance on models, especially in the financial industry. He points out that models can behave badly, leading to catastrophic results, as seen in the 2008 financial crisis. This book encourages readers to question and understand the models they use.

The Interplay of Science and Finance

In 'Models. Behaving. Badly.', you'll find an interesting exploration of the interplay between science and finance. Derman, through his unique perspective as a physicist-turned-financier, provides valuable insights into how these two fields can learn from each other.

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