Thinking in Bets

288 pages, 2018

Annie Duke

Takeaways

Description

In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history. With 26 seconds remaining and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a handoff to his star running back.

The pass was intercepted, and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll make a significant move ruined by bad luck?

Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck you can't control, and there is always information hidden from view.

So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success?

Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision-making?

Embrace Uncertainty

In 'Thinking in Bets', Annie Duke encourages us to embrace uncertainty. She argues that life, like poker, is a game of skill and luck. We can't control everything, but we can make better decisions by acknowledging the role of chance in our lives.

Decisions are Bets on the Future

Duke suggests that every decision we make is a bet on the future. When we decide, we're essentially predicting an outcome. So, it's important to think critically and consider all possible outcomes before making a decision.

Learn from Your Mistakes

Annie Duke emphasizes the importance of learning from our mistakes. She believes that we should see our errors not as failures, but as opportunities to improve our decision-making skills. So, don't be afraid to make mistakes, but be sure to learn from them.

The Power of Group Thinking

In 'Thinking in Bets', you'll find that Duke highly values group thinking. She believes that by sharing our thoughts and ideas with others, we can challenge our own biases and make better decisions. So, don't hesitate to seek advice from others when you're unsure.

Outcome Thinking vs. Process Thinking

Duke encourages us to focus more on the process rather than the outcome. She argues that good decisions can sometimes lead to bad outcomes and vice versa. Therefore, it's more important to have a solid decision-making process than to focus solely on the results.

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Annie Duke's 'Thinking in Bets' offers a compelling, and eminently useful, new way to think about life's decisions. It isn't just about poker. It's about how to make our most important choices.

Maria Konnikova - Psychology Writer

Annie Duke has written an important, and often hilarious, book that will help you understand your own shortcomings--and make smarter choices as a result. You can bet on it.

Cal Newport - Productivity Expert

'Thinking in Bets' is a remarkable book offering a guide to taking control of our future. It's a manual for intelligent decision making, regardless of the cards you're dealt.

Daniel H. Pink - Business Author

Annie Duke combines her expertise in poker and psychology to provide a punchy and insightful book about making better decisions. 'Thinking in Bets' is a must-read.